Failure probability of oil and gas pipelines due to external corrosion defects can be estimated using corrosion growth model and the evaluation of remaining strength. Codes/standards have been developed for the assessment of the remaining strength of corroded pipeline. The remaining strength and the operating pressure were considered to develop the limit state equation and consequently the failure probability of the burst models recommended by codes/standards. In the present paper, comparative analyses of the failure probability estimated by the codes/standards were conducted, using Monte Carlo simulation and first order second moment methods. The analysis revealed that the failure probability of the burst models recommended by codes/standards varies significantly for the same defects size. The study further explored the cause of variability in failure probabilities. The study observed that different defect shape specifications (rectangular, parabolic, etc.) and different stress concentration factor derivations (different contributions of ) for burst pressure estimation are responsible for high variability in the probability of failure. It is important to reduce variability to ensure unified risk-based design approach considering any codes/standards.
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e-mail: msh678@mun.ca
e-mail: fikhan@mun.ca
e-mail: spkenny@mun.ca
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August 2011
Research Papers
Identification of the Cause of Variability of Probability of Failure for Burst Models Recommended by Codes/Standards
Mainul Hasan,
Mainul Hasan
Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science,
e-mail: msh678@mun.ca
Memorial University of Newfoundland
, St. John’s, NL, A1B 3X5, Canada
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Faisal Khan,
Faisal Khan
Professor
Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science,
e-mail: fikhan@mun.ca
Memorial University of Newfoundland
, St. John’s, NL, A1B 3X5, Canada
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Shawn Kenny
Shawn Kenny
P.Eng.
Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science,
e-mail: spkenny@mun.ca
Memorial University of Newfoundland
, St. John’s, NL, A1B 3X5, Canada
Search for other works by this author on:
Mainul Hasan
Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science,
Memorial University of Newfoundland
, St. John’s, NL, A1B 3X5, Canadae-mail: msh678@mun.ca
Faisal Khan
Professor
Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science,
Memorial University of Newfoundland
, St. John’s, NL, A1B 3X5, Canadae-mail: fikhan@mun.ca
Shawn Kenny
P.Eng.
Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science,
Memorial University of Newfoundland
, St. John’s, NL, A1B 3X5, Canadae-mail: spkenny@mun.ca
J. Pressure Vessel Technol. Aug 2011, 133(4): 041101 (9 pages)
Published Online: May 18, 2011
Article history
Received:
June 17, 2010
Revised:
October 12, 2010
Online:
May 18, 2011
Published:
May 18, 2011
Citation
Hasan, M., Khan, F., and Kenny, S. (May 18, 2011). "Identification of the Cause of Variability of Probability of Failure for Burst Models Recommended by Codes/Standards." ASME. J. Pressure Vessel Technol. August 2011; 133(4): 041101. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4002862
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