Statistics of storm peaks over threshold depend typically on a number of covariates including location, season, and storm direction. Here, a nonhomogeneous Poisson model is adopted to characterize storm peak events with respect to season for two Gulf of Mexico locations. The behavior of storm peak significant wave height over threshold is characterized using a generalized Pareto model, the parameters of which vary smoothly with season using a Fourier form. The rate of occurrence of storm peaks is also modeled using a Poisson model with rate varying with season. A seasonally varying extreme value threshold is estimated independently. The degree of smoothness of extreme value shape and scale and the Poisson rate with season are regulated by roughness-penalized maximum likelihood; the optimal value of roughness is selected by cross validation. Despite the fact that only the peak significant wave height event for each storm is used for modeling, the influence of the whole period of a storm on design extremes for any seasonal interval is modeled using the concept of storm dissipation, providing a consistent means to estimate design criteria for arbitrary seasonal intervals. The characteristics of the 100 year storm peak significant wave height, estimated using the seasonal model, are examined and compared with those estimated ignoring seasonality.
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Ocean Engineering
Modeling the Seasonality of Extreme Waves in the Gulf of Mexico
Kevin Ewans
e-mail: kevin.ewans@shell.com
Kevin Ewans
Shell International Exploration and Production
, P.O. Box 60, 2280 AB Rijswijk, The Netherlands
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Philip Jonathan
Kevin Ewans
Shell International Exploration and Production
, P.O. Box 60, 2280 AB Rijswijk, The Netherlandse-mail: kevin.ewans@shell.com
J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng. May 2011, 133(2): 021104 (9 pages)
Published Online: December 6, 2010
Article history
Received:
July 8, 2008
Revised:
October 28, 2009
Online:
December 6, 2010
Published:
December 6, 2010
Citation
Jonathan, P., and Ewans, K. (December 6, 2010). "Modeling the Seasonality of Extreme Waves in the Gulf of Mexico." ASME. J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng. May 2011; 133(2): 021104. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4002045
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