Abstract
Creep deformation in turbomachinery applications is a highly nonlinear phenomenon where ±15 °C may halve or double the average rupture life. Even in well-controlled laboratory conditions, this stochastic nature means that identical tests may differ by a factor of two. Analysts using implicit finite element user creep subroutines may not appreciate the uncertainty of their solution, or the design changes required to account for uncertainty in either the boundary conditions or the solution itself. Designing to a maximum strain limit does not consider the sudden acceleration of tertiary creep rates. Applying a time factor may extend the simulation time by multiple factors. This paper presents a methodology where two estimations of creep damage are made in parallel to the creep simulation at actual operating temperatures. These two estimations consider the predicted change in stress relaxation, at higher or lower temperatures, to estimate the temperature change required to reach the onset of creep, at any given node in the model, and at any given time in the analysis. This margin calculation is expanded to consider the uncertainty in creep prediction. A time-based scatter factor is incorporated into the temperature margin calculation to provide a minimum temperature margin that includes model uncertainty. The analyst can also consider the uncertainty of the temperature prediction and boundary conditions to produce a robust creep prediction in a real-world simulation. The methodology is validated through the finite element analysis (FEA) of example cases and applied to a creep-limited second stage turbine blade.
